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Regression analysis, however, yields a “fit” through the “means” of the analyzed trend. AAPG Bull 32 7: Cored samples are transferred carefully from the core barrel to canisters, which are sealed immediately and transported to an analysis laboratory.

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Net pay should be clearly marked for each well penetration. Lacking such support, however, the projection should be confirmed through volumetric means before booking the forecast volumes as proved reserves. Analogs are useful in selecting the decline curve parameters. Second, and more importantly, the term “certainty” is used here by the U.

G p is insufficient to determine whether there is water influx into a gas reservoir under study. Constructing a 3P model may be best initially, with the ability to modify it to assist in estimating proved or proved plus probable reserves.

Depending on the geologic setting and initial well spacing, however, it might not readily be apparent which wells are in a common reservoir, foal which case it might be appropriate to plot initial static BHPs for the suspect wells vs. Reserves subcategorized as producing are expected to be recovered from ocal intervals that are open and producing at the time of the estimate. J Pet Technol 37 7: G p or use an alternate material-balance method.

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Probabilistic procedures recognize that uncertainties in input data and equations to calculate reserves may be significant. Remedial operations, infill drilling, and modifications to production equipment might have influenced the production history and may be expected to influence future trends. As discussed in the Special Problems section of this chapter, depending on the stage of production maturity, it might not be possible to determine the dominant drive mechanism in such reservoirs.


It might be more practical to test wells at gradually increasing rates to determine a maximum rate at which each well can be produced without coning. In addition to in-house and other proprietary software, numerous commercial software products are available for analyzing historic trends and projecting future oil and gas production, or reserves. J Pet Technol 31 J Can Pet Technol 32 9.

Economic producibility of estimated proved reserves can be supported to the satisfaction of the Office of Engineering if geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty that those reserves can be recovered in future years under existing economic and operating conditions.

The analysis of performance data might involve, for example, regression analysis a least squares fit of a production trend vs. G p for each well until performance indicates which wells are in a common reservoir; however, even then it might be desirable to maintain a plot for each well because such plots might help to determine the drainage area of each well and to identify areas for infill drilling.

Depending on the size of the initial gas cap and the degree of gas-cap voidage, significant volumes of oil might be lost. Without core data or definitive formation tests, analogy may be the only method available initially to estimate reserves. When feasible, compare such estimates with observed recovery in analogous reservoirs.

In general, the following scenarios cause problems:. Log-normal distributions generally exhibit positive right skew. SEC to describe undeveloped reserves, whereas the controlling term in the first sentence of the U.

It is important to realize, however, that although computer simulation is widely used, these methods typically oversimplify representation of the spatial distribution of reservoir properties. Probabilistic Classification of Reserves Probabilistic classifications of reserves for a specific entity usually are based on the cumulative density function of the quantities calculated for the entity.


If there are significant differences in these factors from one property to the next, be careful in making comparisons or statistical analyses of wells between such properties. These two measurements are combined with an estimate of gas lost during the core recovery operation.

Most volumetric methods begin with determining the bulk reservoir volume that contains hydrocarbons. Wedging on the southeast side reflects loss of structure between HKO and LKO, whereas thinning of the net oil contours to the northeast and southwest reflects thinning of the net oil sand. In theory, vertical interference testing or vertical pulse testing can determine this parameter, as discussed by Earlougher, [] but the test procedure involves two sets of perforations separated by a packer, an expense operators might be reluctant to incur.

The Practice of Reservoir Engineering, Vol.

Each estimate should be corroborated using an alternate, preferably independent, method. J Pet Technol 25 2: The graphics module then can be used to compute a production forecast, given initial and final production rates, using any of the curve types exponential, hyperbolic, or harmonic that typically are programmed into the software.

J Can Pet Technol 41 3. Both procedures need the same basic data handbooi equations. Analysis, Forecasting, and Evaluation Software. It is a real-world example of the uncertainties of relying on computer simulation, without history matching, for the estimation of proved reserves. SEC definitions were approvedvirtually all regulated companies were in the U.

Shortguy on BMWDec 26, Knowledge of actual shut-in time is important for assessing data reliability.